2d0b4927-38e4-451b-9e7f-cb586a1ac01b eng; CAN utf8; utf8 dataset; jeuDonnées Dr. M. A. Wulder Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Forest Geomatics Gouvernement du Canada; Ressources naturelles Canada; Service canadien des forêts Centre de foresterie du Pacifique Research Scientist Chercher (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-6004 506 West Burnside Road 506 rue Burnside Ouest Victoria British Columbia Colombie-Britannique V8R 2E4 Canada Canada mike.wulder@canada.ca mike.wulder@canada.ca https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/employes/vue/mwulder http email only please courriel seulemente svp principalInvestigator; chercheurPrincipal 2026-02-17T16:21:28 North American Profile of ISO 19115:2003 - Geographic information - Metadata Profil nord-américain de la norme ISO 19115:2003 - Information géographique - Métadonnées CAN/CGSB-171.100-2009 French; Français Canada; Canada utf8; utf8 EPSG:3978 http://www.epsg-registry.org 1.0 Projected Burn Probability (2020-2100) Probabilité de brûlure projetée (2020-2100) 2025 publication; publication 2025 creation; création Dr. M.A.Wulder Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Forest Geomatics Gouvernement du Canada; Ressources naturelles Canada; Service canadien des forêts Centre de foresterie du Pacifique Research Scientist Chercher (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-6004 506 Burnside Road West 506 rue Burnside Ouest Victoria British Columbia Colombie-Britannique V8R 2E4 Canada Canada mike.wulder@canada.ca mike.wulder@canada.ca https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/employes/vue/mwulder http email only please courriel suelemente svp principalInvestigator; chercheurPrincipal The data shared are spatially explicit projections of wildfire burn probability across Canada’s forested ecozones under multiple future climate scenarios at a 30-m spatial resolution. It is developed within the framework of Canada’s National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS). Four future climate scenarios were used to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of burn probability in the 21st century based on climate, vegetation, and topographic conditions ( Mulverhill et al. 2024). Projected burn probability is provided for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and four future time periods, including 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100, along with a baseline period representing average climate conditions and burn probability between 1991 and 2020. Outputs represent the probability that the conditions (climate, vegetation, topography) of a given pixel resemble those of historically burned areas. All non-climate variables were held static; therefore, projections represent burn probability under future climate scenarios given contemporary (2020) forest conditions. When using this dataset, please cite Mulverhill et al. (2025), as below. Mulverhill, C., Coops, N. C., Wulder, M. A., Hermosilla, T., White, J. C., & Bater, C. W. (2025). Projected Future Changes in Burn Probability in Canada’s Forests and Communities Under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 51(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/07038992.2025.2560347(Mulverhill et al. 2025). For a detailed description of the source data and methods applied to the baseline period to enable the Mulverhill et al. (2025) projections, see: Mulverhill, C., Coops, N.C., Wulder, M.A., White, J.C., Hermosilla, T., and Bater, C.W. 2024. “Multidecadal mapping of status and trends in annual burn probability over Canada’s forested ecosystems.” ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 209 pp. 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2024.02.006(Mulverhill et al. 2024). Ces données montrent des projections détaillées de la probabilité que des feux de forêt se produisent dans les zones forestières du Canada, en fonction de différents scénarios climatiques futurs. Il a été développé dans le cadre du Système national de surveillance des écosystèmes terrestres (NTEMS) du Canada. Les cartes ont une précision de 30 mètres, ce qui permet de visualiser les risques à une échelle très fine. Les chercheurs ont étudié quatre scénarios climatiques possibles pour le 21ᵉ siècle afin de comprendre comment le risque d’incendie pourrait évoluer selon le climat, la végétation et la topographie ( Mulverhill et al. 2024). Les projections couvrent quatre périodes futures : 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 et 2081-2100, ainsi qu’une période de référence (1991-2020) qui reflète les conditions climatiques et le risque moyen observés récemment. Ces cartes indiquent la probabilité qu’un endroit présente des conditions similaires à celles des zones qui ont brûlé par le passé. Les variables comme la végétation et la topographie ont été gardées fixes, ce qui signifie que les projections montrent l’effet du climat futur sur les forêts actuelles (2020). Si vous utilisez ces données, veuillez citer Mulverhill et al. (2025). Mulverhill, C., Coops, N. C., Wulder, M. A., Hermosilla, T., White, J. C., & Bater, C. W. (2025). Projected Future Changes in Burn Probability in Canada’s Forests and Communities Under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 51(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/07038992.2025.2560347( Mulverhill et al. 2025). Pour une description détaillée des données sources et des méthodes appliquées à la période de référence, qui ont permis de produire les projections de Mulverhill et al. (2025), consultez : Mulverhill, C., Coops, N.C., Wulder, M.A., White, J.C., Hermosilla, T., and Bater, C.W. 2024. “Multidecadal mapping of status and trends in annual burn probability over Canada’s forested ecosystems.” ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 209 pp. 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2024.02.006( Mulverhill et al. 2024). onGoing; enContinue asNeeded; auBesoin https://maps.canada.ca/geonetwork/srv/api/records/2d0b4927-38e4-451b-9e7f-cb586a1ac01b/attachments/FireProb.png National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS) National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS) Forests Forêt theme; thème Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus Thésaurus des sujets de base du gouvernement du Canada 2004 creation; création 2016-07-04 publication; publication Government of Canada; Library and Archives Canada Gouvernement du Canada; Bibliothèque et Archives Canada custodian; conservateur Open Government Licence - Canada (http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada) Licence du gouvernement ouvert - Canada (http://ouvert.canada.ca/fr/licence-du-gouvernement-ouvert-canada) otherRestrictions; autresRestrictions intellectualPropertyRights; droitsPropriétéIntellectuelle grid; grille eng geoscientificInformation 1991 2100 -141.003 -52.6174 41.6755 83.1139 GeoTIF 1.0 Brian Low Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Forest Geomatics Gouvernement du Canada; Ressources naturelles Canada; Service canadien des forêts Centre de foresterie du Pacifique Manager, National Forest Information System Gestionnaire, Système national d'information forestière (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-0600 (250) 363-6004 506 Burnside Road West 506 rue Burnside Ouest Victoria British Columbia Colombie-Britannique V8R 2E4 Canada Canada brian.low@canada.ca brian.low@canada.ca https://ca.nfis.org/index_eng.html http email only please courriel suelemente svp custodian; conservateur https://opendata.nfis.org/mapserver/nfis-change_eng.html HTTPS Satellite Forest Information for Canada (English) Information sur les forêts du Canada provenant d'images satellitaires Application;HTML;eng Application;HTML;eng https://opendata.nfis.org/mapserver/cgi-bin/wms_change_fra.cgi?request=GetCapabilities&service=WMS&version=1.3.0&layers=CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020&legend_format=image%2Fpng&feature_info_type=text%2Fhtml OGC:WMS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020 CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020 Web Service;WMS;fra Service Web;WMS;fra https://opendata.nfis.org/mapserver/nfis-change_fra.html HTTPS Satellite Forest Information for Canada (French) Information sur les forêts du Canada provenant d'images satellitaires Application;HTML;fra Application;HTML;fra https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2021-2040.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2021-2040.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2021-2040.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2041-2060.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2041-2060.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2041-2060.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2061-2080.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2061-2080.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2061-2080.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2081-2100.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2081-2100.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP1-2.6_2081-2100.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2021-2040.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2021-2040.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2021-2040.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2041-2060.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2041-2060.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2041-2060.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2061-2080.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2061-2080.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2061-2080.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2081-2100.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2081-2100.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP2-4.5_2081-2100.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2021-2040.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2021-2040.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2021-2040.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2041-2060.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2041-2060.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2041-2060.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2061-2080.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2061-2080.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2061-2080.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2081-2100.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2081-2100.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP3-7.0_2081-2100.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2021-2040.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2021-2040.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2021-2040.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2041-2060.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2041-2060.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2041-2060.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2061-2080.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2061-2080.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2061-2080.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/downloads/forest_change/CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2081-2100.zip HTTPS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2081-2100.zip CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_SSP5-8.5_2081-2100.zip Dataset;ZIP;zxx Données;ZIP;zxx https://opendata.nfis.org/mapserver/cgi-bin/wms_change.cgi?request=GetCapabilities&service=WMS&version=1.3.0&layers=CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020&legend_format=image%2Fpng&feature_info_type=text%2Fhtml OGC:WMS CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020 CA_Forest_Burn_Probability_baseline_1991-2020 Web Service;WMS;eng Service Web;WMS;eng https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924271624000510 HTTPS Multidecadal mapping of status and trends in annual burn probability over Canada’s forested ecosystems Three decades of forest structural dynamics over Canada's forested ecosystems using Landsat time-series and lidar plots. Supporting Document;PDF;eng Document de soutien;PDF;eng