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            <gco:CharacterString>Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Climate Research Division (CRD) and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) previously produced statistically downscaled climate scenarios based on simulations from climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in 2015. ECCC and PCIC have now updated the CMIP5-based downscaled scenarios with two new sets of downscaled scenarios based on the next generation of climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The scenarios are named Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Univariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-U6) and Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Multivariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6).

CMIP6 climate projections are based on both updated global climate models and new emissions scenarios called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs). Statistically downscaled datasets have been produced from 26 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) under three different emission scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with PCIC later adding SSP3-7.0 to the CanDCS-M6 dataset. The CanDCS-U6 was downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2) procedure, and the CanDCS-M6 was downscaled using the N-dimensional Multivariate Bias Correction (MBCn) method. The CanDCS-U6 dataset was produced using the same downscaling target data (NRCANmet) as the CMIP5-based downscaled scenarios, while the CanDCS-M6 dataset implements a new target dataset (ANUSPLIN and PNWNAmet blended dataset).

Statistically downscaled individual model output and ensembles are available for download. Downscaled climate indices are available across Canada at 10km grid spatial resolution for the 1950-2014 historical period and for the 2015-2100 period following each of the three emission scenarios.

A total of 31 climate indices have been calculated using the CanDCS-U6 and CanDCS-M6 datasets. The climate indices include 27 Climdex indices established by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and 4 additional indices that are slightly modified from the Climdex indices. These indices are calculated from daily precipitation and temperature values from the downscaled simulations and are available at annual or monthly temporal resolution, depending on the index. Monthly indices are also available in seasonal and annual versions.

Note: projected future changes by statistically downscaled products are not necessarily more credible than those by the underlying climate model outputs. In many cases, especially for absolute threshold-based indices, projections based on downscaled data have a smaller spread because of the removal of model biases. However, this is not the case for all indices. Downscaling from GCM resolution to the fine resolution needed for impacts assessment increases the level of spatial detail and temporal variability to better match observations. Since these adjustments are GCM dependent, the resulting indices could have a wider spread when computed from downscaled data as compared to those directly computed from GCM output. In the latter case, it is not the downscaling procedure that makes future projection more uncertain; rather, it is indicative of higher variability associated with finer spatial scale.

Individual model datasets and all related derived products are subject to the terms of use (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/TermsOfUse/TermsOfUse6-1.html) of the source organization.</gco:CharacterString>
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                  <gmd:LocalisedCharacterString xmlns="" locale="#fra">La Division de la recherche climatique (DRC) d’Environnement et Changement climatique Canada (ECCC) et le Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) ont déjà produit des scénarios mis à l’échelle statistique et fondés sur des simulations de modèles climatiques qui faisaient partie de la phase 5 du Projet d’intercomparaison de modèles couplés (CMIP5) en 2015. ECCC et le PCIC ont mis à jour les scénarios à échelle réduite fondés sur la CMIP5 en ajoutant deux nouveaux ensembles de scénarios à échelle réduite fondés sur la prochaine génération de projections climatiques de la phase 6 du Projet d’intercomparaison de modèles couplés (CMIP6). Les scénarios appelés scénarios climatiques canadiens à échelle réduite – méthode univariée de la CMIP6 (CanDCS-U6) (« Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Univariate method from CMIP6 ») et scénarios climatiques canadiens à échelle réduite – méthode multivariée de la CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6) (« Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Multivariate method from CMIP6 »).

Les projections climatiques du CMIP6 sont fondées à la fois sur des modèles climatiques mondiaux actualisés et sur de nouveaux scénarios d’émissions appelés « trajectoires socioéconomiques partagées » (SSP, pour « Shared Socioeconomic Pathways »). Des ensembles de données statistiquement mis à l’échelle ont été produits à partir de 26 modèles climatiques mondiaux (MCM) de la CMIP6 et selon trois scénarios d’émissions différents (c.-à-d. SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 et SSP5-8.5), et le PCIC a ajouté plus tard le SSP3-7.0 à l’ensemble de données CanDCS-M6. La procédure de correction des biais et analogues construits avec cartographie des quantiles, version 2 (BCCAQv2) a été utilisée pour l’ensemble CanDCS-U6, tandis que la méthode multivariée de correction des biais à N dimensions (MBCn) a été utilisée pour l’ensemble CanDCS-M6. L’ensemble CanDCS-U6 a été produit au moyen des mêmes données cibles de réduction (NRCANmet) que les scénarios à échelle réduite fondés sur la CMIP5, tandis l’ensemble CanDCS-M6 utilise un nouvel ensemble cible (mêlant les ensembles ANUSPLIN et PNWNAmet).

Des extrants des modèles individuels et des ensembles de modèles statistiquement mis à l’échelle peuvent être téléchargés. Les indices climatiques mis à échelle de manière statistique réduite sont disponibles partout au Canada à une résolution spatiale de grille de 10 km pour la période antérieure 1950 2014 et la période 2015 2100 suivant chacun des trois scénarios d’émissions.

Un total de 31 indices climatiques avoir été calculée avec des données CanDCS-U6 et CanDCS-M6. Les indices climatiques comprennent 27 indices de climdex établis par le Groupe d’experts sur la détection et les indices d’extrêmes climatiques (ETCCDI) et 4 autres indices légèrement modifiés par rapport aux indices de climdex. Ces indices sont calculés à partir des précipitations et des températures quotidiennes obtenues à partir des simulations à échelle réduite et sont obtenus à une résolution temporelle annuelle ou mensuelle, selon les indices. Les indices mensuels sont également disponibles en versions saisonnières et annuelles.

Remarque : les changements projetés par les produits mis à l’échelle sur le plan statistique ne sont pas nécessairement plus crédibles que ceux des résultats du modèle climatique sous-jacent. Souvent, surtout pour les indices fondés sur des seuils absolus, l’écart des projections fondées sur des données mises à l’échelle est plus faible en raison de l’élimination des biais du modèle. Or ce n’est pas le cas pour tous les indices. La mise à l’échelle de la résolution du MCM pour qu’elle soit haute, ce qui est nécessaire pour l’évaluation des répercussions, augmente le niveau de détail spatial et de variabilité temporelle pour mieux correspondre aux observations. Étant donné que ces ajustements dépendent du MCM, les indices qui en résultent pourraient avoir un écart plus grand lorsqu’ils sont calculés à partir de données mises à l’échelle comparativement à ceux qui sont directement calculés à partir des résultats du MCM. Dans ce dernier cas, ce n’est pas la procédure de mise à l’échelle qui rend la projection plus incertaine, il s’agit plutôt d’une plus grande variabilité associée à une échelle spatiale plus haute.

Les ensembles de données de modèles individuels et tous les produits dérivés connexes sont assujettis aux conditions d'utilisation (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/TermsOfUse/TermsOfUse6-1.html) de l'organisation source.</gmd:LocalisedCharacterString>
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