Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected total precipitation change

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.

Projected relative change in total precipitation is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). Seasonal and annual averages of projected precipitation change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of projected precipitation change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.

Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled total precipitation (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.

Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Date ( RI_367 ): 2018-09-06

Date ( RI_366 ): 2018-01-01

RI_414

Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Benita Tam ( Analyst )

Canada

Status: completed; complété RI_593

RI_414

Government of Canada - ( )

Canada

Maintenance and update frequency: asNeeded; auBesoin RI_540

Keywords ( RI_528 )

statistically downscaled scenarios, projections, climate, climate change, temperature, precipitation, percentiles, ensembles, climate model, cmip5

Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus Thésaurus des sujets de base du gouvernement du Canada ( RI_528 )

Climate change
Climate

ECCC Information Category EN ECCC Information Category FR ( RI_528 )

Weather and Climate

Business Functions Fonctions de l'entreprise ( RI_528 )

Provide Climate Information Products and Services
Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction

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National (CA)

external.theme.EC_Branch local.theme.external.theme.EC_Branch ( RI_528 )

Science and Technology Branch

external.theme.EC_Directorate local.theme.external.theme.EC_Directorate ( RI_528 )

Atmospheric Science and Technology

external.theme.GC_Security_Level local.theme.external.theme.GC_Security_Level ( RI_528 )

Unclassified

Use limitation: Open Government Licence - Canada (http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada)

Access constraints: license; licence RI_606

Use constraints: license; licence RI_606

Spatial representation type: textTable; texteTable RI_637

Metadata language: eng; CAN

Character set: utf8; utf8 RI_458

Topic category

Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere

Begin date: 2021-01-01

End date: 2100-01-01

Reference system identifier: EPSG / EPSG:4326 /

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NetCDF ( 1 )

RI_412

Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )

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Metadata language: eng; CAN

Character set: utf8; utf8 RI_458

Hierarchy level: series; série RI_623

Date stamp: 2025-04-03T15:49:50.152Z

Metadata standard name: North American Profile of ISO 19115:2003 - Geographic information - Metadata

Metadata standard version: Enviroment Canada - Version 1

RI_418

Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )

Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd , Gatineau , Quebec , K1A 0H3 ,

1-800-668-6767
http://ec.gc.ca

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