Description

Conservation of marine biodiversity requires understanding the joint influence of ongoing environmental change and fishing pressure. Addressing this challenge requires robust biodiversity monitoring and analyses that jointly account for potential drivers of change. Here, we ask how demersal fish biodiversity in Canadian Pacific waters has changed since 2003 and assess the degree to which these changes can be explained by environmental change and commercial fishing. Using a spatiotemporal multispecies model based on fisheries independent data, we find that species density (number of species per area) and community biomass have increased during this period. Environmental changes during this period were associated with temporal fluctuations in the biomass of species and the community as a whole. However, environmental changes were less associated with changes in species’ occurrence. Thus, the estimated increases in species density are not likely to be due to environmental change. Instead, our results are consistent with an ongoing recovery of the demersal fish community from a reduction in commercial fishing intensity from historical levels. These findings provide key insight into the drivers of biodiversity change that can inform ecosystem-based management.

The layers provided represent three community metrics: 1) species density (i.e., species richness), 2) Hill-Shannon diversity, and 3) community biomass. All layers are provided at a 3 km resolution across the study domain for the period of 2003 to 2019. For each metric, we provide layers for three summary statistics: 1) the mean value in each grid cell over the temporal range, 2) the probability that the grid cell is a hotspot for that metric, and 3) the temporal coefficient of variation (i.e., standard deviation/mean) across all years.

Methods:

The analysis that produced these layers is presented in Thompson et al. (2022). The analysis uses data from the Groundfish Synoptic Bottom Trawl Research surveys in Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS), Hecate Strait (HS), West Coast Vancouver Island (WCVI), and West Coast Haida Gwaii (WCHG) from 2003 to 2019. Cartilaginous and bony fish species caught in DFO groundfish surveys that were present in at least 15% of all trawls over the depth range in which they were caught were included. This depth range was defined as that which included 95% of all trawls in which that species was present. The final dataset used in our analysis consisted of 57 species (Table S1 in Thompson et al. 2022).

The spatiotemporal dynamics of the demersal fish community were modeled using the Hierarchical Modeling of Species Communities (HMSC) framework and package (Tikhonov et al. 2021) in R. This framework uses Bayesian inference to fit a multivariate hierarchical generalized mixed model. We modeled community dynamics using a hurdle model, which consists of two sub models: a presence-absence model and a biomass model that is conditional on presence. Our list of environmental covariates included bottom depth, bathymetric position index (BPI), mean summer tidal speed, substrate muddiness, substrate rockiness, whether the trawl was inside or outside of the ecosystem-based trawling footprint, and survey region (QCS & HS vs. WCVI & WCHG)), mean summer near-bottom temperature deviation, mean summer near-bottom dissolved oxygen deviation, mean summer cross-shore and along-shore current velocities near the seafloor, mean summer depth-integrated primary production, and local-scale commercial fishing effort.

Layers are provided for three community metrics. All metrics should be interpreted as the value that would be expected in the catch from an average tow in the Groundfish Synoptic Bottom Trawl Research Surveys taken in a given 3 km grid cell. Species density (sometimes called species richness) should be interpreted as the number of the 57 species that would be caught in a trawl. Hill-Shannon diversity is a measure of diversity that gives greater weight to communities where biomass is spread equally across species. Community biomass is the total biomass across all 57 species that would be expected to be caught per square km in an average tow.

Data Sources:

Research data was provided by Pacific Science's Groundfish Data Unit for research surveys from the GFBio database between 2003 and 2019 that occurred in four regions: Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait, West Coast Haida Gwaii, and West Coast Vancouver Island. Our analysis excludes species that are rarely caught in the research trawls and so our estimates would not include the occurrence or biomass of these rare species.

Commercial fishing data was accessed through a DFO R script detailed here: https://github.com/pbsassess/gfdata. Local scale commercial fishing effort was calculated from this data.

The substrate layers were obtained from a substrate model (Gregr et al. 2021).

The oceanographic layers (bottom temperature, dissolved oxygen, tidal and circulation speeds, primary production) were obtained from a hindcast simulation of the British Columbia continental margin (BCCM) model (Peña et al. 2019).

Uncertainties:

Species that are not well sampled by the trawl surveys may not be accurately estimated by our model. The model did not include spatiotemporal random effects, which likely underestimates spatiotemporal variability in the region. It is also important to underline covariate uncertainty and model uncertainty. The hotspot estimates provide one measure of model uncertainty/certainty.