Projected Sea Ice Concentration change based on CMIP5 multi-model ensembles

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice concentration based on an ensemble of twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Sea ice concentration is represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area. Therefore, projected change in sea ice concentration is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of sea ice concentration change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.

Twenty-year average changes in sea ice concentration (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided.

Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Simple

Date ( RI_367 )
2018-09-06
Date ( RI_366 )
2018-01-01
RI_414
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Benita Tam ( Analyst )
Canada
Status
completed; complété RI_593
RI_414
  Government of Canada - ( )
Canada
Maintenance and update frequency
asNeeded; auBesoin RI_540
Keywords ( RI_528 )
  • Projections, climate, climate change, percentiles, ensembles, climate model, sea ice, cmip5, anomaly
Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus Thésaurus des sujets de base du gouvernement du Canada ( RI_528 )
  • Climate
  • Climate change
ECCC Information Category EN ECCC Information Category FR ( RI_528 )
  • Weather and Climate
Business Functions Fonctions de l'entreprise ( RI_528 )
  • Provide Climate Information Products and Services
  • Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction
external.theme.EC_Branch local.theme.external.theme.EC_Branch ( RI_528 )
  • Science and Technology Branch
Use limitation
Open Government Licence - Canada (http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada)
Access constraints
license; licence RI_606
Use constraints
license; licence RI_606
Spatial representation type
textTable; texteTable RI_637
Metadata language
eng; CAN
Character set
utf8; utf8 RI_458
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
Begin date
2021-01-01
End date
2100-01-01
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Reference system identifier
https://epsg.io / EPSG:4326 /
Distribution format
  • NetCDF ( 1 )

RI_412
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )
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1-800-668-6767
http://ec.gc.ca
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Supporting Document;PDF;eng

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Supporting Document;PDF;fra

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View ECCC Data Mart (English) ( HTTPS )

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View ECCC Data Mart (French) ( HTTPS )

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File identifier
78f9e3e0-3a12-4321-99dd-eed047c31e5e XML
Metadata language
eng; CAN
Character set
utf8; utf8 RI_458
Hierarchy level
series; série RI_623
Date stamp
2025-04-03T15:24:13.704Z
Metadata standard name
North American Profile of ISO 19115:2003 - Geographic information - Metadata
Metadata standard version
Enviroment Canada - Version 1
RI_418
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )
Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd , Gatineau , Quebec , K1A 0H3 ,
1-800-668-6767
http://ec.gc.ca
 
 

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