Future - Flood Susceptibility Mapping

This series of projected future flood susceptibility maps were generated using an XGBoost machine learning model trained on major floods from 2005 to 2023. The trained model was applied to future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2100, under two SSP scenarios: 245 and 585. The model uses temperature and precipitation time series to estimate potential future flood susceptibility. These maps represent model projections and should be interpreted as indicators of potential flood susceptibility, not precise forecasts.

This dataset forms part of a broader collection of flood susceptibility datasets, offering related information and analyses. The collection includes an overview page with associated publications, historic susceptibility values, temporal trends, and future projections.

- [Collection – Flood Susceptibility Mapping]( https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/1074f781-85d3-4c86-86cb-fd1c339197dc )

- [Historic - Flood Susceptibility Mapping]( https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/ea1384df-bf4a-4743-97bb-870dc43f8d77 )

- [Trends and Extremes – Flood Susceptibility Mapping]( https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/3202e0a0-0afb-4120-b102-b0c41f0fb9eb )

Simple

Date ( RI_367 )
2026-03
Date ( RI_366 )
2026-03
RI_414
  Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada;Geoscience and Earth Monitoring Sector (GEMS)/Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation/GeoBase - GeoInfo
Purpose
The purpose of this dataset is to explore how flood susceptibility may change under future climate scenarios, acknowledging the substantial uncertainty associated with long‑term climate projections. An XGBoost model trained on major floods from 2005–2023 was applied to projected temperature and precipitation conditions for 2050, 2070, and 2100 under SSP2‑4.5 and SSP5‑8.5 scenarios. These maps represent model‑driven estimates of potential future flood susceptibility rather than precise forecasts. They are intended to support exploratory planning, climate‑adaptation discussions, and broad‑scale assessment of possible future flood behaviour under uncertain climate futures.
Credit
Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS)/Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation (CCMEO), Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)
Status
onGoing; enContinue RI_596
Maintenance and update frequency
asNeeded; auBesoin RI_540
Keywords ( RI_528 )
  • flood susceptibility
  • flood likelihood
  • flood screening
  • climate change
Keywords ( RI_525 )
  • Mid-latitude
  • Western Hemisphere
  • Northern Hemisphere
  • North America
  • Canada
Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus Thésaurus des sujets de base du gouvernement du Canada ( RI_528 )
  • Climate change
  • Surface water
  • Floods
  • Hydrology
  • Earth sciences
  • Water management
Use limitation
Open Government Licence - Canada (http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada)
Access constraints
license; licence RI_606
Use constraints
license; licence RI_606
Spatial representation type
grid; grille RI_636
Metadata language
eng; CAN
Character set
utf8; utf8 RI_458
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
  • Environment
  • Geoscientific information
  • Inland waters
Begin date
2050
End date
2100
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Reference system identifier
https://www.epsg-registry.org / EPSG:3979 /
Distribution format
  • COG ( Unknown )

RI_414
  Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada;Geoscience and Earth Monitoring Sector (GEMS)/Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation/GeoBase
Ontario , Canada
OnLine resource
SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog (STAC) browser ( HTTPS )

Application;HTML;zxx

OnLine resource
SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog (STAC) Application Programming Interface (API) ( HTTPS )

API;JSON;zxx

OnLine resource
Cartes de susceptibilité aux inondations – Conditions climatiques futures (modélisées à partir des observations historiques) – 30 m ( OGC:WMS )

Web Service;WMS;fra

OnLine resource
Flood Susceptibility Maps - Future Climate Conditions (modelled based on historic observations) - 30 m ( OGC:WMS )

Web Service;WMS;eng

File identifier
c00f95a3-7bab-4d28-b9cc-b30f06b5afd2 XML
Metadata language
eng; CAN
Character set
utf8; utf8 RI_458
Parent identifier
Collection - Flood Susceptibility Mapping 1074f781-85d3-4c86-86cb-fd1c339197dc
Hierarchy level
dataset; jeuDonnées RI_622
Date stamp
2026-04-23T10:36:23
Metadata standard name
North American Profile of ISO 19115:2003 - Geographic information - Metadata
Metadata standard version
CAN/CGSB-171.100-2009
RI_414
  Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada;Geoscience and Earth Monitoring Sector (GEMS)/Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation/GeoBase - GeoInfo ( )
 
 

Overviews

overview
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Spatial extent

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Keywords


Provided by

Associated resources

Not available