Mapping the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus in Quebec in the context of climate change

The West Nile virus (WNV) activity zone corresponds to the territory where WNV cases have been documented by human, animal, and entomological (mosquito) surveillance. This zone indicates where there is a higher probability of the virus being present in Quebec based on historical data. All surveillance data was aggregated to form the WNV's area of activity over the study period, by merging the 2 km resolution buffer zones and the municipalities of each mosquito case or batch. Outside of this area, the presence of WNV remains possible, but the virus has not been detected by surveillance. This can be explained, among other things, by the movements of infected birds and mosquitoes over varying distances. The climatic zone favorable to the transmission of WNV by Culex pipiens (one of the main vectors of the virus) highlights the territory where the estimated seasonal average temperature could be conducive to the transmission of WNV in Quebec. This zone is defined by a seasonal average temperature (calculated from April to September) greater than or equal to 14°C. The indicator was calculated for historical records 1989-2018 (current distribution) and for the horizons of 2030, 2050 and 2080 according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 (future distribution). Seasonal mean temperatures were calculated during the WNV's active period (i.e. April to September) by adding up the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and then dividing them by two. These temperatures were generated with a resolution of 10 km x 10 km covering the whole of Quebec for time horizons and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The final value for seasonal mean temperatures used is the 50th percentile. For more information on the area of activity of the WNV or the climatic zones favorable to the transmission of WNV by Culex pipiens, you can consult the [Mapping of the current and future distribution of West Nile virus in Quebec in the context of climate change] (https://www.inspq.qc.ca/publications/3693) OR the INSPQ website [Current and future distribution maps of zoonoses in Quebec] (https://www.inspq.qc.ca/zoonoses/cartes).**This third party metadata element was translated using an automated translation tool (Amazon Translate).**