Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction
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This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2046-2065, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: http://ccds-dscc.ec.gc.ca/index.php?page=download-cmip5.
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Seasonal and annual trends of relative total precipitation change (%) for 1948-2012 based on Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are available, at a 50km resolution across Canada. The relative trends reflect the percent change in total precipitation over a period from the baseline value (defined as the average over 1961-1990 as the reference period). CANGRD data are interpolated from adjusted and homogenized climate station data (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Adjusted precipitation data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation.
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Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled total precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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The data consist of monthly, seasonal and annual means of homogenized daily maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperatures for more than 330 locations in Canada; monthly, seasonal and annual totals of adjusted daily rainfall, snowfall and total precipitation for more than 460 locations; homogenized monthly, seasonal and annual means of hourly surface wind speed at more than 110 locations; monthly, seasonal and annual means of hourly station and sea level pressure adjusted for more than 630 locations. The data are given for the entire period of observation. Please refer to the papers below for detailed information regarding the procedures for homogenization and adjustment. References Mekis, É. and L.A. Vincent, 2011: An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset for trend analysis in Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 49(2), 163-177. Vincent, L. A., X. L. Wang, E. J. Milewska, H. Wan, F. Yang, and V. Swail, 2012. A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017859. Wan, H., X. L. Wang, V. R. Swail, 2010: Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian near-surface wind speeds. Journal of Climate, 23, 1209-1225. Wan, H., X. L. Wang, V. R. Swail, 2007: A quality assurance system for Canadian hourly pressure data. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 1804-1817. Wang, X.L, Y. Feng, L. A. Vincent, 2013. Observed changes in one-in-20 year extremes of Canadian surface air temperatures. Atmosphere-Ocean. Doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.818526.
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The Homogenized Surface Air Temperature data consist of monthly, seasonal and annual means of homogenized daily maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperatures (degrees Celsius) for 338 locations in Canada. Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments (derived from statistical procedures) to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The time periods of the data vary by location, with the oldest data available from the early 1880s at some stations to the most recent update in 2017. Observations at co-located sites were sometimes joined in order to create longer time series. Data availability over most of the Canadian Arctic is restricted to the mid-1940s to present. The data will continue to be updated every year.
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The Homogenized Surface Wind Speed data consist of monthly, seasonal and annual means of hourly wind speed (kilometres per hour) at standard 10 metre level for 156 locations in Canada. Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments (derived from statistical procedures) to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The time periods of the data vary by location, with the oldest data available from 1953 at some stations to the most recent update in 2014. Data availability over most of the Canadian Arctic is restricted to 1953 to present. The data will continue to be updated every few years (as time permits).
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Monthly, seasonal and annual trends of mean wind speed change (kilometres per hour) based on homogenized station data (AHCCD) are available. Trends are calculated using the Theil-Sen method using the station’s full period of available data. The availability of surface wind speed trends will vary by station; if more than 5 consecutive years are missing data or more than 10% of the data within the time series is missing, a trend was not calculated.
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Seasonal and annual trends of mean surface air temperature change (degrees Celsius) for 1948-2016 based on Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are available at a 50km resolution across Canada. Temperature trends represent the departure from a mean reference period (1961-1990). CANGRD data are interpolated from adjusted and homogenized climate station data (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation.
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2046-2065, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP2.6, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.