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The Agri-Environmental Indicator of Risk of Water Contamination by Phosphorus dataset estimates the relative risk of phosphorus loss from Soil Landscapes of Canada agricultural areas to surface water. The data series for this indicator consists of four (4) datasets: Annual P-Balance, Soil-P-Source, Edge of Field and IROWC-P. Products in this data series present results for predefined areas as defined by the Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC v.3.2) data series, uniquely identified by SOIL_LANDSCAPE_ID values.

The probability (likelihood) of ice freeze days, the number of days in the forecast period with a minimum temperature below the frost temperature, -5°C for herbaceous crops over the non-growing season (ifd_herb_nogrow_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from November 1 to March 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from November 1 to March 31. Over-wintering crops are biennial and perennial field crops such as herbaceous plants (strawberry, alfalfa, timothy, and many other forage crops) and woody fruit trees (apple, pear, peach, cherry, plum, apricot, chestnut, pecan, grape, etc.). These crops normally grow and develop in the growing season and become dormant in the non-growing season. However, extreme weather and climate events such as cold waves in the growing season and ice freezing events during the winter are a major constraint for their success of production and survival in Canada. The winter survival of these plants depends largely on agrometeorological conditions from late autumn to early spring, especially ice-freezing damage during the winter season. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily basis.

The Agri-Environmental Indicator Particulate Matter dataset provides an estimated net emissions of particulate matter from agricultural lands.

30 Year Spatial Climate Averages are used to describe the average climatic conditions for an area and include variables for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and climate moisture index. At the end of each decade, scientists at Natural Resources Canada have been creating the newest models for as many climate variables as possible. Using a program called ANUSPLIN and climate data points, models for Canada and the United States are created. The NRCan Climate Averages are a large suite of datasets that can be used to compare weather of the past and present to help predict the future climate. The 30 year averages are computed for a uniform 30 year period and consists of the 12 monthly averages computed over the 30 year time period. The 30-year periods included in this series are: 1901-1930; 1921-1950; 1931-1960; 1951-1980; 1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010; 1991-2020. These are standard 30-year WMO (World Meteorological Organization) periods. Although this data has been processed successfully on a computer system at the Canadian Forest Service, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy or utility of the data on any other system or for general scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The disclaimer applies both to individual use of the data and aggregate use with other data. It is strongly recommended that careful attention be paid to the contents of the metadata file associated with these data. The Canadian Forest Service shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of maximum temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled maximum temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of mean temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled mean temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The "Agri-Environmental Indicator Risk of Soil Salinization" dataset estimates the risk of accumulation of soluble salts on agricultural lands in the Canadian Prairies. At high levels, the accumulation of these salts in soil and groundwater in the landscape can inhibit the growth of many plant species.

Seasonal and annual trends of relative total precipitation change (%) for 1948-2012 based on Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are available, at a 50km resolution across Canada. The relative trends reflect the percent change in total precipitation over a period from the baseline value (defined as the average over 1961-1990 as the reference period). CANGRD data are interpolated from adjusted and homogenized climate station data (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Adjusted precipitation data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation.

Drought is a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, resulting in a water shortage that has adverse impacts on vegetation, animals and/or people. The Climate Moisture Index (CMI) was calculated as the difference between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) – the potential loss of water vapour from a landscape covered by vegetation. Positive CMI values indicate wet or moist conditions and show that precipitation is sufficient to sustain a closed-canopy forest. Negative CMI values indicate dry conditions that, at best, can support discontinuous parkland-type forests. The CMI is well suited to evaluating moisture conditions in dry regions such as the Prairie Provinces and has been used for other ecological studies. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated for 30-year periods using the modified Penman-Monteith formulation of Hogg (1997), based on monthly 10-km gridded temperature data. Data shown on maps are 30-year averages. Historical values of CMI (1981-2010) were created by averaging annual CMI calculated from interpolated monthly temperature and precipitation data produced from climate station records. Future values of CMI were projected from downscaled monthly values of temperature and precipitation simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected mean annual Climate Moisture Index across Canada for the long-term (2071-2100) under the RCP 2.6 (rapid emissions reductions). Reference: Hogg, E.H. 1997. Temporal scaling of moisture and the forest-grassland boundary in western Canada. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 84,115–122.