Multi-model ensembles for a suite of ocean variables based on projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) are available for 1900-2100 on a common 1x1 degree global grid. All ocean variables currently available contain data for the top level (sea surface) of the ocean. Climate projections vary across GCMs due to differences in the representation and approximation of earth systems and processes, and natural variability and uncertainty regarding future climate drivers. Thus, there is no single best climate model. Rather, using results from an ensemble of models (e.g., taking the average) is best practice, as an ensemble takes model uncertainty into account and provides more reliable climate projections. Provided on CCDS are multi-model ensembles as well as individual model simulations. Multi-model output is available for historical simulations and six Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5), four future periods (near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), end of century (2081-2100), and up to eight percentiles (maximum, minimum, mean, 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 95th) of the CMIP6 ensemble distribution. Datasets are available as both actual and anomaly values. Anomalies of projected changes are expressed with respect to a historical reference period of 1995-2014. The number of models in each ensemble differs according to model availability for each SSP and variable, see the model list resource for details on the models included in each ensemble. For more information on the CMIP6 multi-model ocean datasets, see the technical documentation resource.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) CMIP6 statistically downscaled agroclimatic indices are an updated version of the CMIP5 agroclimatic indices dataset making use of two different sets of downscaled scenarios created by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC): 1. Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Univariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-U6), and 2. Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Multivariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6). To address the needs of different user groups in Canada, 49 indices, including agroclimatic indices, were proposed by the Canadian adaptation community through a series of consultations. Please see the definition list for the equations of each index. In 2025, PCIC expanded the CMIP6 agroclimatic indices, by adding CanDCS-M6, which includes SSP3-7.0 for most GCMs. Additionally, PCIC introduced 18 new indices to the previous 49. The 67 indices are available for both the CanDCS-U6 and CanDCS-M6. The range of impact-relevant climate indices available for download includes, indices representing counts of the number of days when temperature or precipitation exceeds (or is below) a threshold value; the episode length when a particular weather/climate condition occurs; and indices that accumulate temperature departures above or below a fixed threshold. The statistically downscaled climate indices are available for individual models and ensembles, historical simulations (1951-2014) and three emissions scenarios called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (2015-2100), at a 10 x 10 km degree grid resolution. The CanDCS-M6 agroclimatic indices dataset also includes SSP3-7.0 results. Note: projected future changes by statistically downscaled products are not necessarily more credible than those by the underlying climate model outputs. In many cases, especially for absolute threshold-based indices, projections based on downscaled data have a smaller spread because of the removal of model biases. However, this is not the case for all indices. Downscaling from GCM resolution to the fine resolution needed for impact assessment increases the level of spatial detail and temporal variability to better match observations. Since these adjustments are GCM dependent, the resulting indices could have a wider spread when computed from downscaled data as compared to those directly computed from GCM output. In the latter case, it is not the downscaling procedure that makes future projection more uncertain; rather, it is indicative of higher variability associated with a finer spatial scale. Individual model datasets and all related derived products are subject to the terms of use (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/TermsOfUse/TermsOfUse6-1.html) of the source organization.

Multi-model ensembles for a suite of variables based on projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) are available for 1850-2100 on a common 1x1 degree global grid. Climate projections vary across GCMs due to differences in the representation and approximation of earth systems and processes, and natural variability and uncertainty regarding future climate drivers. Thus, there is no single best climate model. Rather, using results from an ensemble of models (e.g., taking the average) is best practice, as an ensemble takes model uncertainty into account and provides more reliable climate projections. Provided on Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) are four types of products based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensembles: time series datasets and plots, maps and associated datasets, tabular datasets, and global gridded datasets. Monthly, seasonal, and annual ensembles are available for up to six Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5), four future periods (near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), end of century (2081-2100)), and up to five percentiles (5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 95th) of the CMIP6 ensemble distribution. The number of models in each ensemble differs according to model availability for each SSP and variable, see the model list resource for details on the models included in each ensemble. The majority of products show projected changes expressed as anomalies according to a historical reference period of 1995-2014. The products provided include global, national, and provincial/territorial datasets and graphics. For more information on the CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, see the technical documentation resource.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of maximum temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled maximum temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The Regional Ensemble storm Surge Prediction System (RESPS) produces storm surge forecasts using the DalCoast ocean model. DalCoast (Bernier and Thompson 2015) is a storm surge forecast system for the east coast of Canada based on the depth-integrated, barotropic and linearized form of the Princeton Ocean Model. The model is forced by the 10 meters winds and sea level pressure from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS).

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of mean temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled mean temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Multi-model ensembles of sea ice concentration based on projections from twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of sea ice concentration as represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area, are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

This dataset contains the modelled and observed data used in the publication "Fjord circulation permits persistent subsurface water mass in a long, deep mid-latitude inlet" by Laura Bianucci et al., DFO Ocean Sciences Division, Pacific Region (published in the journal Ocean Science in 2024). An application of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM v4.1) was run from May 24 to June 27, 2019 in the Discovery Islands region of British Columbia, Canada. Observed temperature and salinity profiles available in this area during this time period are included in the dataset, along with the modelled values at the same times and locations.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of projected change in mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Long-term measurements of sea water properties collected by sensor buoy in Adventfjorden as part of the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS).