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Multi-model ensembles of sea ice concentration based on projections from twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of sea ice concentration as represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area, are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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Radar coverage is provided to dynamically display the zones covered by the radars every 6 minutes, and to provide information on the availability (or not) of the contributing radars as well as on the areas of overlap.
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CaLDAS-NSRPS was installed as an experimental system within the National Surface and River Prediction System (NSRPS) at Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) in July 2019. CaLDAS-NSRPS is a continuous offline land-surface assimilation system, which provides analyses of the land surface every 3 h over the domain of the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) at a 2.5 km grid spacing. The emphasis in CaLDAS-NSRPS is to focus upon the assimilation of satellite based remote sensing observations to provide the optimal initial conditions for the predictive components of the NSRPS, the High Resolution Deterministic/Ensemble Land Surface Prediction System (HRDLPS/HRELPS) and the Deterministic/Ensemble Hydrological Prediction Systems (DHPS/EHPS). CaLDAS-NSRPS is launched 4 times per day, at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
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The Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) takes into account physical and chemical processes to produce deterministic forecasts of the concentration of chemical species of interest to air quality. These chemical constituents include gases such as O3, SO2, NO, and NO2, in addition to fine particles PM2.5 (diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less) and coarse particles PM10 (diameter of 10 micrometers or less). The PM2.5 and PM10 now include the contribution of wildfire emissions as well as anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. The forecasts are available for the present up to 72 hours in the future twice a day (run 00 UTC and 12 UTC). The geographic domain of the RAQDPS covers most of North America with a horizontal resolution of 10km.
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.
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The Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA) produces a best estimate of the amount of precipitation that occurred over recent past periods of 6 or 24 hours. The estimate integrates data from in situ precipitation gauge measurements, weather radar, satellite imagery and numerical weather prediction models. Geographic coverage is North America (Canada, United States and Mexico). Data is available at horizontal resolution of 10 km. Data is only available for the surface level. Analysis data is made available four times a day for 6h intervals and twice a day for the 24h interval. A preliminary estimate is available approximately 1h after the end of the accumulation period, and revised 7h after in order to assimilate gauge data arriving later.
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Multi-model ensembles of mean precipitation based on projections from twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of mean precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.
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Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice thickness, based on an ensemble of twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in sea ice thickness is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of sea ice thickness change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice thickness (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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HREPA is part of the NSRPS (National Surface and River Prediction System) experimental system dependent on two other systems. It uses surface station observations and radar QPEs pre-processed by HRDPA and disturbed trial fields generated by the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). HREPA produces four precipitation analyses per day on 6-hour accumulations valid at synoptic times (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC). Each analysis set contains 24 members plus the control member. A quality index (confidence index) is also available on the same grid as the precipitation fields. Finally, two percentiles, 25th and 75th, estimated on these sets are also provided for each synoptic hour. Currently, there is only a high-resolution version of the system, whose domain covers Canada and the northern United States with a horizontal resolution of about 2.5km.
Arctic SDI catalogue