Climate Normals and Averages are used to summarize or describe the average climatic conditions of a particular location. At the completion of each decade, Environment and Climate Change Canada updates its Climate Normals for as many locations and as many climatic characteristics as possible. The Climate Normals, Averages and Extremes offered here are based on Canadian climate stations with at least 15 years of data between 1981 to 2010.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in maximum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. Projected change in maximum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected maximum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of maximum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled maximum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Percent of Average Precipitation represents the accumulation of precipitation for a location, divided by the long term average value. The long term average value is defined as the average amount over the 1981 – 2010 period. Products are produced for the following timeframes: Agricultural Year, Growing Season, Winter Season, as well as rolling products for 30, 60, 90, 180, 270, 365, 730, 1095, 1460 and 1825 days.

In 2015, a magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred 60 km beneath Sidney, BC. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it had a magnitude of 7.1.

Full rupture of the Cascadia interface fault, the fault defining the boundary between the North American and Pacific Ocean plates. This magnitude 9.0 event, often referred to as ‘The Big One’, affects most communities in southwestern British Columbia.

Magnitude 5.7 earthquake scenario located directly southeast of Ladysmith Town Centre. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Ladysmith and Burleith Arm.

Description: Seasonal climatologies of the Canadian Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone (CPEEZ) were computed from a numerical simulation of the British Columbia continental margin (BCCM) model for the 1981 to 2010 period, which can be considered as a representation of the climatological state of the region. Methods: The BCCM model is an ocean circulation-biogeochemical model implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS version 3.5). The horizontal resolution is eddy-resolving at 3 km and the vertical discretization is based on a terrain-following coordinate system with 42 depth levels of increasing resolution near the surface. A detailed description of the BCCM model is given in Peña et al. (2019). Spring months were defined as April to June, summer months were defined as July to September, fall months were defined as October to December, and winter months were defined as January to March. The data available here contain raster layers of seasonal climatology of temperature, salinity, current speed, nitrate, oxygen, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, aragonite saturation state, phytoplankton, and primary production. The data include 47 vertical levels (surface, bottom, and 45 more selected depths), except for total phytoplankton (surface values only) and primary production (depth-integrated values). A layer giving the bottom depth in metres at the centre of each grid point is also provided. Model grids were set to NaN values in regions where the model output is highly uncertain, such as inlets, nearshore areas, and the Strait of Georgia. Uncertainties: Model results have been compared against tide gauge data, altimetry, CTD and nutrient profiles, observed geostrophic currents, and seasonal temperature and salinity climatologies over the 1981 to 2010 period. The model is successful in reproducing the main features of the region including salient features of the seasonal cycle and the vertical structure of density and nutrients.

Description: Seasonal mean temperature from the British Columbia continental margin model (BCCM) were averaged over the 1993 to 2020 period to create seasonal mean climatology of the Canadian Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone. Methods: Temperatures at up to forty-six linearly interpolated vertical levels from surface to 2400 m and at the sea bottom are included. Spring months were defined as April to June, summer months were defined as July to September, fall months were defined as October to December, and winter months were defined as January to March. The data available here contain raster layers of seasonal temperature climatology for the Canadian Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone at 3 km spatial resolution and 47 vertical levels. Uncertainties: Model results have been extensively evaluated against observations (e.g. altimetry, CTD and nutrient profiles, observed geostrophic currents), which showed the model can reproduce with reasonable accuracy the main oceanographic features of the region including salient features of the seasonal cycle and the vertical and cross-shore gradient of water properties. However, the model resolution is too coarse to allow for an adequate representation of inlets, nearshore areas, and the Strait of Georgia.