Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in minimum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. Projected change in minimum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected minimum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of minimum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled mean minimum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Cumulative heat-energy satisfies the essential requirement of field crop growth and development towards a high yield and good quality of agricultural crop products. Agriculture is an important primary production sector in Canada. Agricultural production, profitability, sustainability and food security depend on many agrometeorological factors. Extreme weather events in Canada, such as drought, floods, heat waves, frosts and high intensity storms, have the ability to significantly impact field crop production. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily basis.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of projected change in mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The Crop Stress Index is the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (AET) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) express as: CSI = 1-(AET/PET) AET and PET are calculated within the Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) model using temperature and precipitation data and a crop-specific biometeorological time scale model to estimate growth stage (Robertson, 1968), with crop specific phenological and crop water extraction coefficients taken from Chipanshi et al 2013. The WDI ranges between 0 and 1, with a value closer to 1 indicating higher stress Crop Stress Index is modelled for each climate station using measured precipitation and temperature

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been recognized as the most accessible index for quantifying and reporting meteorological drought. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir storage. The model uses observed historical precipitation amounts to compute probability distributions which are then normalized using an incomplete gamma function over a range of timescales. The values can be interpreted as the number of standard deviations by which the observed anomaly deviates from the long-term mean. where positive values (greater than zero) result from above average conditions.

This data series was compiled by AAFC and Statistics Canada using a combination of agroclimate data and satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the current growing season. The forecast is made based on a statistical model using historical yield, climate and NDVI data.

First Fall Frost (-2 °C) is defined as the average day of the second half of the year with the first occurrence of the minimum temperature of a climate day which is at or below -2 °C. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

PURPOSE: Used as an abundance index for use in stock assessment. DESCRIPTION: Since 1991, an annual fishery-independent acoustic survey of early fall (September-October) concentrations of Herring has been conducted in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). The standard annual survey area occurs in the 4Tmno areas where both NAFO Div. 4T Herring spawning components aggregate in the fall. The survey uses a random stratified design of parallel transects within predefined strata. Surveys are conducted at night and use two vessels: an acoustic vessel to quantify the fish schools' biomass using a hull-mounted 120 KHz split-beam transducer, and a fishing vessel to sample aggregates of fish with a pelagic trawl (details in LeBlanc et al. 2015; see also LeBlanc and Dale 1996). Trawl samples are used to separate the estimated biomass by spawning component and age, determine species composition, and size distribution for the estimation of the target strength (LeBlanc and Dale 1996; LeBlanc et al. 2015). A standardized abundance index is generated from this acoustic survey. This index includes catch-at-age data since 1994. This survey also provides the age-disaggregated acoustic abundance index for ages 2 to 10 for spring spawners and fall spawners. PARAMETERS COLLECTED: Size and age measurement (biological); acoustic tracking (ecological); species counts (ecological) SAMPLING METHODS: Please consult the research documents listed in the supplementary citation list for sampling details. USE LIMITATION: To ensure scientific integrity and appropriate use of the data, we would encourage you to contact the data custodian.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of minimum temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled minimum temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.