Prediction
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.
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The Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) produces global sea ice and ocean analyses and 10 day forecasts daily. This product contains time-mean sea ice and ocean forecast fields interpolated to two grids. One of the grids is a 0.2° resolution regular latitude-longitude grid covering the global ocean (north of 80° S). The other grid is in north-polar stereographic projection with a 5-km spacing at the standard parallel 60° N and covers the Arctic Ocean and the neighbouring sub-polar seas. Data is available for 50 depths. The data files are in netCDF format and comply with the Climate and Forecast Conventions.
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The Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is based on the NEMO-CICE ice-ocean model and produces regional sea ice and ocean analyses and 84 hours forecasts daily based at [00, 06, 12, 18] UTC on a subset of the 1/12° resolution global tri-polar grid (ORCA12). RIOPS assimilates data (gridded CCMEP analysis SST product, SLA from satellite altimetry, in situ observations) using a multivariate reduced order Kalman filter and includes a 3DVar ice concentration analysis (assimilating satellite remote sensing and Canadian Ice Service ice charts). Atmospheric fluxes for 84 hours forecasts are calculated using fields from a blending of the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) and the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS).
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The High Resolution Deterministic Land Prediction System (HRDLPS) produces high-resolution medium-range forecasts of land surface, subsurface variables, and of near-surface atmospheric variables (1.5 m temperature and dewpoint, 10 m wind). HRDLPS is initialized with analysis and trial fields provided by the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System of the National Surface and River Prediction System (CaLDAS-NSRPS). The system is then driven with atmospheric forecasts provided by the HRDPS over the first two days of integration and by the GDPS over the next four days. Predictions are performed twice a day. The system runs on a grid with a 2.5 km horizontal spacing covering Canada and part of the USA.
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The Global Deterministic storm Surge Prediction System (GDSPS) produces water level forecasts using a modified version of the NEMO ocean model (Wang et al. 2021, 2022, 2023). It provides 240 hours forecasts twice per day on a 1/12° resolution grid (3-9 km). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds, sea level pressure, ice concentration, ice velocity and surface currents from the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS). The three dimensionnal ocean temperature and salinity fields of the model are nudged to values provided by the Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) and the GDPS. During the post-processing phase, storm surge elevation (ETAS) is derived from total water level (SSH) by harmonic analysis using t_tide (Foreman et al. 2009).
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.
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The Regional Ensemble storm Surge Prediction System (RESPS) produces storm surge forecasts using the DalCoast ocean model. DalCoast (Bernier and Thompson 2015) is a storm surge forecast system for the east coast of Canada based on the depth-integrated, barotropic and linearized form of the Princeton Ocean Model. The model is forced by the 10 meters winds and sea level pressure from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS).
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The Global Deterministic Wave Prediction System (GDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 120 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds and the ice concentration from the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS). The ice concentration is used by the model to attenuate wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% ice and to suppress it for concentration above 75%. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period and primary swell height, direction and period.
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.
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The Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) produces wave forecasts out to 48 hours in the future using the third generation spectral wave forecast model WaveWatch III® (WW3). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds from the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Over the Great Lakes, an ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to attenuate or suppress wave growth in areas covered by 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice, respectively. Over the ocean, an ice forecast from the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is used: in the Northeast Pacific, waves propagate freely for ice concentrations below 50%, above this threshold there is no propagation; in the Northwest Atlantic the same logic is used as in the Great Lakes. Forecast elements include significant wave height, peak period, partitioned parameters and others. This system includes several domains: Lake Superior, Lake Huron-Michigan, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Atlantic North-West and Pacific North-East.