Weather and Climate
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Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled total precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of mean temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled mean temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
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This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP2.6. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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The Homogenized Surface Wind Speed data consist of monthly, seasonal and annual means of hourly wind speed (kilometres per hour) at standard 10 metre level for 156 locations in Canada. Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments (derived from statistical procedures) to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The time periods of the data vary by location, with the oldest data available from 1953 at some stations to the most recent update in 2014. Data availability over most of the Canadian Arctic is restricted to 1953 to present. The data will continue to be updated every few years (as time permits).
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP8.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP2.6, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.
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The Homogenized Surface Air Temperature data consist of monthly, seasonal and annual means of homogenized daily maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperatures (degrees Celsius) for 338 locations in Canada. Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments (derived from statistical procedures) to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The time periods of the data vary by location, with the oldest data available from the early 1880s at some stations to the most recent update in 2017. Observations at co-located sites were sometimes joined in order to create longer time series. Data availability over most of the Canadian Arctic is restricted to the mid-1940s to present. The data will continue to be updated every year.
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This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.