Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice concentration based on an ensemble of twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Sea ice concentration is represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area. Therefore, projected change in sea ice concentration is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of sea ice concentration change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice concentration (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Monthly, seasonal and annual trends of mean wind speed change (kilometres per hour) based on homogenized station data (AHCCD) are available. Trends are calculated using the Theil-Sen method using the station’s full period of available data. The availability of surface wind speed trends will vary by station; if more than 5 consecutive years are missing data or more than 10% of the data within the time series is missing, a trend was not calculated.

Plant health assessments and vegetation surveys are undertaken at both terrestrial and wetland sites in the oil sands region and in reference areas. Plant monitoring is being conducted for biodiversity and contaminants, and because plants are important both as wildlife habitat and as traditional-use species. Plant and soil samples are collected at monitoring sites near and at varying distances from oil sands operations. Plant tissues are being examined for levels of naphthenic acids (NAs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. Plant indicator species include Vaccinium spp. (blueberry), Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea), Arctostaphyllos uva-ursi (common bearberry), and Cornus canadensis (bunchberry). Soil samples from riparian banks and boreal forest locations are also collected for greenhouse studies. These experiments evaluate the uptake, distribution, and toxicity of the contaminants in plant tissue.

This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP8.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2046-2065, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP8.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice thickness, based on an ensemble of twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in sea ice thickness is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of sea ice thickness change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice thickness (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

The Great Lakes Migrant Waterfowl Surveys provide periodic data on waterfowl abundance, spatial and temporal distributions, and use along the shorelines of major water bodies and river systems in Ontario during mostly during spring and fall, and to a lesser extent during summer and winter, seasons. The primary survey area covers the shoreline and nearshore (~1km) waters of the Lower Great Lakes region of Ontario, specifically including the St. Lawrence River, Lake Ontario, Niagara River, Lake Erie, Detroit River and Lake St. Clair and associated major marshes and embayments. Aerial surveys, typically flown several times within spring (March –May: 1969, 1971, 1972, 1975 –1979, 1981, 1982, 1984 –1988, 1991 –1996, 1998 –2003 & 2009 –2011) and fall (September –December: 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974 –2003 & 2009 –2011) survey periods, have been conducted periodically on a relatively regular basis (approx. 5-10 years) along the Lower Great Lakes shorelines between 1968 and 2011. Smaller-scale surveys also have been conducted periodically during summer (June –August: 1968 –1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1999 & 2002) in this region. This survey often has been conducted in conjunction with the Midwinter Survey, so its data (up to 2004) also are included in the CWS Migrant Waterfowl Surveys database (Year ≥2004 & Month = January & February).Data from several aerial surveys conducted periodically during the non-breeding period outside the Lower Great Lakes region also are included in this database. Spring and fall surveys have been conducted along the shorelines and nearshore waters of the Upper Great Lakes region of Ontario, specifically at St. Clair River (Fall 2012 & 2013), Lake Huron (Fall 1973, 1996; Spring 1974) / Georgian Bay (Fall 1973, 1996, 2012 & 2013) & Lake Superior (Fall 2000). Aerial surveys also have been conducted inland in southeastern Ontario along the Rideau River (Fall 1998 & Spring 1999).

This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in minimum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. Projected change in minimum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected minimum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of minimum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled mean minimum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.