Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected relative change (also known as anomalies) in mean precipitation based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected relative change in mean precipitation is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of mean precipitation change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean precipitation (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Multi-model ensembles of mean precipitation based on projections from twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of mean precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Multi-model ensembles of sea ice concentration based on projections from twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of sea ice concentration as represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area, are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Seasonal and annual trends of mean surface air temperature change (degrees Celsius) for 1948-2016 based on Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are available at a 50km resolution across Canada. Temperature trends represent the departure from a mean reference period (1961-1990). CANGRD data are interpolated from adjusted and homogenized climate station data (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Homogenized climate data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation.

Water level and discharge data are available from Water Survey of Canada’s Hydrometric Network. The Water Survey of Canada (WSC) is the national authority responsible for the collection, interpretation and dissemination of standardized water resource data and information in Canada. In partnership with the provinces, territories and other agencies, WSC operates over 2500 active hydrometric gauges across the country, maintains an archive of historical information for over 7600 stations and provides access to near real-time (water level and stream flow) provisional data at over 1700 locations in Canada.

This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2046-2065, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

Air emissions from oil sands development can come from a number of sources including industrial smokestacks, tailings ponds, transportation, and dust from mining operations. Air quality monitoring under the Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for the Oil Sands is designed to determine the contribution of emissions from oil sands activities to local and regional air quality and atmospheric deposition both now and in the future. Deposition data include: - Passive Sampling of PACs deployed for two month periods across a network of 17 sites - Active sampling of PACs at three sites to inform the amount of dry deposition - Particulate metals (24 hour integrated samples following the one in six day National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) cycle)

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled total precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Plant health assessments and vegetation surveys are undertaken at both terrestrial and wetland sites in the oil sands region and in reference areas. Plant monitoring is being conducted for biodiversity and contaminants, and because plants are important both as wildlife habitat and as traditional-use species. Plant and soil samples are collected at monitoring sites near and at varying distances from oil sands operations. Plant tissues are being examined for levels of naphthenic acids (NAs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. Plant indicator species include Vaccinium spp. (blueberry), Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea), Arctostaphyllos uva-ursi (common bearberry), and Cornus canadensis (bunchberry). Soil samples from riparian banks and boreal forest locations are also collected for greenhouse studies. These experiments evaluate the uptake, distribution, and toxicity of the contaminants in plant tissue.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of minimum temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled minimum temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.