Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of projected change in mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Multi-model ensembles of snow depth based on projections from twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of snow depth (m) are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in surface wind speed based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in wind speed is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of wind speed change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in wind speed (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Gridded monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperature anomalies derived from daily minimum, maximum and mean surface air temperatures (degrees Celsius) is available at a 50km resolution across Canada. The Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are interpolated from homogenized temperature (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Homogenized temperatures incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The anomalies are the difference between the temperature for a given year or season and a baseline value (defined as the average over 1961-1990 as the reference period). The yearly and seasonal temperature anomalies were computed for the years 1948 to 2017. The data will continue to be updated every year.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice thickness, based on an ensemble of twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in sea ice thickness is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of sea ice thickness change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice thickness (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Gridded monthly, seasonal and annual anomalies derived from daily total precipitation is available at a 50km resolution across Canada. The Canadian gridded data (CANGRD) are interpolated from adjusted precipitation (i.e., AHCCD datasets). Adjusted precipitation data incorporate adjustments to the original station data to account for discontinuities from non-climatic factors, such as instrument changes or station relocation. The anomalies are the percentage difference between the value for a given year or season and a baseline value (defined as the average over 1961-1990 as the reference period). The yearly and seasonal relative precipitation anomalies were computed for the years 1948 to 2014. The data will be updated as time permits.

Daily climate observations are derived from two sources of data. The first are Daily Climate Stations producing one or two observations per day of temperature, precipitation. The second are hourly stations that typically produce more weather elements e.g. wind or snow on ground. Only a subset of the total stations is shown due to size limitations. The criteria for station selection are listed as below. The priorities for inclusion are as follows: (1) Station is currently operational, (2) Stations with long periods of record, (3) Stations that are co-located with the categories above and supplement the period of record.

Plant health assessments and vegetation surveys are undertaken at both terrestrial and wetland sites in the oil sands region and in reference areas. Plant monitoring is being conducted for biodiversity and contaminants, and because plants are important both as wildlife habitat and as traditional-use species. Plant and soil samples are collected at monitoring sites near and at varying distances from oil sands operations. Plant tissues are being examined for levels of naphthenic acids (NAs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. Plant indicator species include Vaccinium spp. (blueberry), Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea), Arctostaphyllos uva-ursi (common bearberry), and Cornus canadensis (bunchberry). Soil samples from riparian banks and boreal forest locations are also collected for greenhouse studies. These experiments evaluate the uptake, distribution, and toxicity of the contaminants in plant tissue.

This series includes maps of projected change in mean precipitation based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble results for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. Maps are provided for three time periods: 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

This series includes maps of projected average change in mean temperature (°C) based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble results for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (based on the 50th percentile of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble). Maps are provided for three time periods: 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.