This series includes maps of projected change in mean precipitation based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble results for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. Maps are provided for three time periods: 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

Monthly 30-year Average Mean Temperature represents the average monthly mean temperature calculated at a given location averaged across a 30 year period (1961-1991, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020). These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

The Coastal Environmental Baseline Program is a multi-year Fisheries and Oceans Canada initiative designed to work with Indigenous and local communities and other key parties to collect coastal environmental data at six unique sites across Canada, including the Port of Saint John (New Brunswick). The overall purpose of the Program is to collect localized ecological data in these areas to build a better baseline understanding of marine ecological conditions. The Maritimes region has developed a physical oceanography project to align with the interests and data needs of local communities and stakeholders. Starting in 2020, data describing the depth and temperature of tidal flood waters have been collected at a series of intertidal locations in the Port of Saint John vicinity, to characterize high marsh flood tides and water level fluctuations near the Courtenay Bay causeway. Inundation by marine waters in high marsh areas is typically limited to spring tides, while the water level in Courtenay Bay is influenced by anthropogenic infrastructure (e.g. causeway, tide gates). The resulting data can enhance studies ranging from coastal vulnerability and resilience to salt marsh morphodynamics, by quantifying the frequency, amplitude and duration of tidal inundation. Data were collected using Hobo U20-001-02 water level loggers, which were deployed inside stilling wells constructed from 15-inch lengths of perforated ABS pipe (2¼” diameter). The stilling wells were sunk to a depth of 6 inches below ground, with the water level logger suspended inside the well from a bolt near the top. The logger was positioned with a rigid wire such that the measurement volume was equal to ground level, while allowing the logger to be easily removed for downloading and precisely replaced at the measurement location. Loggers were accessed 2-3 times per year to download, and were removed during the winter months. Data have been compensated for changing atmospheric pressure using the Barometric Compensation Tool in HobowarePro (version 3.7.21) and barometric pressure data collected from a dry location during the study period. The resulting water level is reported in meters, and is relative to the elevation of the water level logger (e.g. above ground level). Citation: Port of Saint John intertidal water level and temperature (2020-2022). Coastal Environmental Baseline Program. Coastal Ecosystems Science Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews, N.B. XX-XX-2024

Mean Temperature Difference From Normal values are computed by subtracting the normal monthly average temperature from the average monthly temperature of the month. The average monthly temperature is computed by obtaining the mean value of average daily temperatures for a month. If the month was colder than normal the value computed will be negative and if it was warmer the value will be positive.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has been conducting surface water trawl surveys since 1992 in the coastal waters of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and Alaska and in the high seas of the Gulf of Alaska. These surveys initially focused on determining the migratory patterns (1992-2002) and on the growth and physiology (2003-2016) of juvenile Pacific Salmon. Since 2016, the focus has been expanded to include all components of the pelagic ecosystem while retaining a strong focus on juvenile Pacific Salmon. Given the change in research priorities, there are differences between years in location and timing. The survey series are provided based on large marine ecosystems, so data will vary in availability. These survey data contain fishing and catch information along with biological information recorded. Surveys available here have published reports that outline overall operations and any oceanographic data, zooplankton and additional samples collected.

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression. The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C. Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Multiple layers are provided. First, the fire season length is shown across Canada for a reference period (1981-2010). Difference in projected fire season length compared to reference period is shown for the short- (2011-2040), medium- (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) and, for the long-term (2071-2100), under RCP 2.6 (rapid emissions reductions).

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected relative change (also known as anomalies) in mean precipitation based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected relative change in mean precipitation is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of mean precipitation change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean precipitation (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Plant health assessments and vegetation surveys are undertaken at both terrestrial and wetland sites in the oil sands region and in reference areas. Plant monitoring is being conducted for biodiversity and contaminants, and because plants are important both as wildlife habitat and as traditional-use species. Plant and soil samples are collected at monitoring sites near and at varying distances from oil sands operations. Plant tissues are being examined for levels of naphthenic acids (NAs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. Plant indicator species include Vaccinium spp. (blueberry), Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea), Arctostaphyllos uva-ursi (common bearberry), and Cornus canadensis (bunchberry). Soil samples from riparian banks and boreal forest locations are also collected for greenhouse studies. These experiments evaluate the uptake, distribution, and toxicity of the contaminants in plant tissue.

Magnitude 5.2 earthquake scenario along the Vedder Fault which runs northeast along Vedder Mountain. This earthquake is located about 18 km east of Abbotsford City Hall. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Abbotsford town centre.

Concentrations of sea pens, small and large gorgonian corals and sponges on the east coast of Canada have been identified through spatial analysis of research vessel survey by-catch data following an approach used by the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) in the Regulatory Area (NRA) on Flemish Cap and southeast Grand Banks. Kernel density analysis was used to identify high concentrations. These analyses were performed for each of the five biogeographic zones of eastern Canada. The largest sea pen fields were found in the Laurentian Channel as it cuts through the Gulf of St. Lawrence, while large gorgonian coral forests were found in the Eastern Arctic and on the northern Labrador continental slope. Large ball-shaped Geodia spp. sponges were located along the continental slopes north of the Grand Banks, while on the Scotian Shelf a unique population of the large barrel-shaped sponge Vazella pourtalesi was identified. The latitude and longitude marking the positions of all tows which form these and other dense aggregations are provided along with the positions of all tows which captured black coral, a non-aggregating taxon which is long-lived and vulnerable to fishing pressures.