Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice concentration based on an ensemble of twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Sea ice concentration is represented as the percentage (%) of grid cell area. Therefore, projected change in sea ice concentration is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of sea ice concentration change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice concentration (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Magnitude 5.2 earthquake scenario along the Vedder Fault which runs northeast along Vedder Mountain. This earthquake is located about 18 km east of Abbotsford City Hall. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Abbotsford town centre.

The Blended Index (BI) is a model which employs multiple potential indicators of drought and excess moisture, such as the Palmer drought index, rolling precipitation amounts and soil moisture, and combines them into a weighted, normalized value between 0 and 100. The inputs and weights used in this model are subject to change periodically as it is optimized to best represent extent, duration and severity of impactful weather conditions. The blended index is deployed as two variations; short term (st) focusing on 1 to 3 months, and long term (lt) focusing on 6 months to 5 years.

30-year Average Number of Days with Minimum Daily Temperature above 20 °C is defined as the count of climate days during the year where the minimum daily temperature was above 20 °C. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells

Crop/Corn Heat Units (CHU) is a temperature-based index often used by farmers and agricultural researchers to estimate whether the climate is warm enough to grow corn. Daily crop heat units are calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures with separate calculations for day and night. The daytime relationship sets the minimum at 10 C for growth up to a maximum of 30 C, beyond which growth slows. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

Frost Day Count (-4 °C) is defined as the count of the number of days in a calendar month where the minimum daily temperature for the climate day was at or below -4 °C. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

30-year Average Number of Days with Temperature above 32 °C are defined as the count of the number of climate days during the month where the maximum daily temperature was greater than 32 °C. These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.

The Coastal Environmental Baseline Program is a multi-year Fisheries and Oceans Canada initiative designed to work with Indigenous and local communities and other key parties to collect coastal environmental data at six unique sites across Canada, including the Port of Saint John (New Brunswick). The overall purpose of the Program is to collect localized ecological data in these areas to build a better baseline understanding of marine ecological conditions. The Maritimes region has developed a physical oceanography project to align with the interests and data needs of local communities and stakeholders. Starting in 2020, data describing the depth and temperature of tidal flood waters have been collected at a series of intertidal locations in the Port of Saint John vicinity, to characterize high marsh flood tides and water level fluctuations near the Courtenay Bay causeway. Inundation by marine waters in high marsh areas is typically limited to spring tides, while the water level in Courtenay Bay is influenced by anthropogenic infrastructure (e.g. causeway, tide gates). The resulting data can enhance studies ranging from coastal vulnerability and resilience to salt marsh morphodynamics, by quantifying the frequency, amplitude and duration of tidal inundation. Data were collected using Hobo U20-001-02 water level loggers, which were deployed inside stilling wells constructed from 15-inch lengths of perforated ABS pipe (2¼” diameter). The stilling wells were sunk to a depth of 6 inches below ground, with the water level logger suspended inside the well from a bolt near the top. The logger was positioned with a rigid wire such that the measurement volume was equal to ground level, while allowing the logger to be easily removed for downloading and precisely replaced at the measurement location. Loggers were accessed 2-3 times per year to download, and were removed during the winter months. Data have been compensated for changing atmospheric pressure using the Barometric Compensation Tool in HobowarePro (version 3.7.21) and barometric pressure data collected from a dry location during the study period. The resulting water level is reported in meters, and is relative to the elevation of the water level logger (e.g. above ground level). Citation: Port of Saint John intertidal water level and temperature (2020-2022). Coastal Environmental Baseline Program. Coastal Ecosystems Science Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews, N.B. XX-XX-2024