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Manual snow survey (active & inactive) locations as part of the BC Snow Survey program.

The impact of climatic variability on the environment is of great importance to the agricultural sector in Canada. Monitoring the impacts on water supplies, soil degradation and agricultural production is essential to the preparedness of the region in dealing with possible drought and other agroclimate risks. Derived normal climate data represent 30-year averages (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020) of climate conditions observed at a particular location. The derived normal climate data represents 30-year averages or “normals” for precipitation, temperature, growing degree days, crop heat units, frost, and dry spells. These normal trends are key to understanding agroclimate risks in Canada. These normal can be used as a baseline to compare against current conditions, and are particularly useful for monitoring drought risk.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of mean temperature are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled mean temperature (°C) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The number of days in the forecast period with a minimum temperature below the frost temperature, -5°C for herbaceous crops over the non-growing season (ifd_herb_nogrow). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from November 1 to March 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from November 1 to March 31. Over-wintering crops are biennial and perennial field crops such as herbaceous plants (strawberry, alfalfa, timothy, and many other forage crops) and woody fruit trees (apple, pear, peach, cherry, plum, apricot, chestnut, pecan, grape, etc.). These crops normally grow and develop in the growing season and become dormant in the non-growing season. However, extreme weather and climate events such as cold waves in the growing season and ice freezing events during the winter are a major constraint for their success of production and survival in Canada. The winter survival of these plants depends largely on agrometeorological conditions from late autumn to early spring, especially ice-freezing damage during the winter season. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily basis.

The Probability (likelihood) of heat wave days for cool season crops occurring Heat wave days: The number of days in the forecast period with a maximum temperature above the cardinal maximum temperature, the temperature at which crop growth ceases. This temperature is 30°C for cool season crops (dhw_cool_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cool season crops require a relatively low temperature condition. Typical examples include wheat, barley, canola, oat, rye, pea, and potato. They normally grow in late spring and summer, and mature between the end of summer and early fall in the southern agricultural areas of Canada. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Dry spell periods are defined as the number of days (April 1 – October 31) where daily precipitation is less than 0.5 mm. This is not an accumulation of precipitation, simply a count of days. Dry spell products are only generated during the Growing Season, April 1 through October 31.

Multi-model ensembles of sea ice thickness based on projections from twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of sea ice thickness (m) are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

WCPS-coupled forecast is the component in the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) that provides the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts at a 1km resolution (0.008 x 0.008 degree) over the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence River and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. It launches 4 times a day at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC and produces 84 hours forecast, based on the atmospheric model GEM, coupled with the ocean-ice model NEMO-CICE. The products from WCPS-coupled forecasts are (1) GEM : surface air temperatures, surface wind velocities, and surface runoff (2) NEMO-CICE : variety of lake/ocean sea ice variables, for example, lake levels and temperatures. They are designed to help forecasters issuing bulletins and warnings in ice-infestested waters for navigation, water level alert, emergency response, Search and Rescue, and CIS Sea Ice forecast.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected relative change (also known as anomalies) in mean precipitation based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected relative change in mean precipitation is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of mean precipitation change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in mean precipitation (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.