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The Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS) provides a 48 hour ocean and ice forecast over different domains (East, West, Salish Sea) four times a day at 1/36° resolution. A pseudo-analysis component is forced at the ocean boundaries by the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) forecasts and spectrally nudged to the RIOPS solution in the deep ocean. Fields from the pseudo-analysis are used to initialize the 00Z forecast, whilst the 06, 12 and 18Z forecasts use a restart files saved at hour 6 from the previous forecast. The atmospheric fluxes for both the pseudo-analysis and forecast components are provided by the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) blended both spatially and temporally with either the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) (for CIOPS-East) or an uncoupled component of the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) at 10km horizontal resolution (for CIOPS-West) for areas not covered by the HRDPS.

Probability of daily precipitation above 25mm over the forecast period (p1d25_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from September 1 to August 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from September 1 to August 31. Units: mm Precipitation (moisture availability) establishes the economic yield potential and product quality of field crops. Both dry and wet precipitation extremes have the ability to inhibit proper crop growth. The greatest daily precipitation index covers the risk of excessive precipitation in the short term, while the other indices pertain to longer term moisture availability. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

The Probability (likelihood) of heat wave days for cool season crops occurring Heat wave days: The number of days in the forecast period with a maximum temperature above the cardinal maximum temperature, the temperature at which crop growth ceases. This temperature is 30°C for cool season crops (dhw_cool_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cool season crops require a relatively low temperature condition. Typical examples include wheat, barley, canola, oat, rye, pea, and potato. They normally grow in late spring and summer, and mature between the end of summer and early fall in the southern agricultural areas of Canada. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Heat Wave Days are the number of days in the forecast period with a maximum temperature above the cardinal maximum temperature, the temperature at which crop growth ceases. This temperature is 35°C for warm season crops (dhw_warm). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Warm season crops require a relatively warm temperature condition. Typical examples include bean, soybean, corn and sweet potato. They normally grow during the summer season and early fall, then ripen in late fall in southern Canada only. Other agricultural regions in Canada do not always experience sufficiently long growing seasons for these plants to achieve maturity. The optimum temperature for such crops is 30°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

The probability (likelihood) of ice freeze days, the number of days in the forecast period with a minimum temperature below the frost temperature, -30°C for woody crops over the dormant period (ifd_wood_dorm_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from November 1 to March 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from November 1 to March 31. Over-wintering crops are biennial and perennial field crops such as herbaceous plants (strawberry, alfalfa, timothy, and many other forage crops) and woody fruit trees (apple, pear, peach, cherry, plum, apricot, chestnut, pecan, grape, etc.). These crops normally grow and develop in the growing season and become dormant in the non-growing season. However, extreme weather and climate events such as cold waves in the growing season and ice freezing events during the winter are a major constraint for their success of production and survival in Canada. The winter survival of these plants depends largely on agrometeorological conditions from late autumn to early spring, especially ice-freezing damage during the winter season. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily basis.

Multi-model ensembles of mean precipitation based on projections from twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of mean precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The number of days during the forecast period with an average wind speed greater than 30 km/h (nswd). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from September 1 to August 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from September 1 to August 31. Winds can significantly influence crop growth and yield mainly due to mechanical damage of plant vegetative and reproductive organs, an imbalance of plant-soil-atmosphere water relationships, and pest and disease distributions in agricultural fields. The maximum wind speed and the number of strong wind days over the forecast period represent short term and extended strong wind events respectively. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

An accumulated value of heat degrees that the average temperature is above a specified threshold, 10°C for warm season crops. This condition must be maintained for at least 5 consecutive days in order for EGDD to be accumulated (egdd_warm). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cumulative heat-energy satisfies the essential requirement of field crop growth and development towards a high yield and good quality of agricultural crop products. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Climate Research Division (CRD) and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) previously produced statistically downscaled climate scenarios based on simulations from climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in 2015. ECCC and PCIC have now updated the CMIP5-based downscaled scenarios with two new sets of downscaled scenarios based on the next generation of climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The scenarios are named Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Univariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-U6) and Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Multivariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6). CMIP6 climate projections are based on both updated global climate models and new emissions scenarios called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs). Statistically downscaled datasets have been produced from 26 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) under three different emission scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with PCIC later adding SSP3-7.0 to the CanDCS-M6 dataset. The CanDCS-U6 was downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2) procedure, and the CanDCS-M6 was downscaled using the N-dimensional Multivariate Bias Correction (MBCn) method. The CanDCS-U6 dataset was produced using the same downscaling target data (NRCANmet) as the CMIP5-based downscaled scenarios, while the CanDCS-M6 dataset implements a new target dataset (ANUSPLIN and PNWNAmet blended dataset). Statistically downscaled individual model output and ensembles are available for download. Downscaled climate indices are available across Canada at 10km grid spatial resolution for the 1950-2014 historical period and for the 2015-2100 period following each of the three emission scenarios. A total of 31 climate indices have been calculated using the CanDCS-U6 and CanDCS-M6 datasets. The climate indices include 27 Climdex indices established by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and 4 additional indices that are slightly modified from the Climdex indices. These indices are calculated from daily precipitation and temperature values from the downscaled simulations and are available at annual or monthly temporal resolution, depending on the index. Monthly indices are also available in seasonal and annual versions. Note: projected future changes by statistically downscaled products are not necessarily more credible than those by the underlying climate model outputs. In many cases, especially for absolute threshold-based indices, projections based on downscaled data have a smaller spread because of the removal of model biases. However, this is not the case for all indices. Downscaling from GCM resolution to the fine resolution needed for impacts assessment increases the level of spatial detail and temporal variability to better match observations. Since these adjustments are GCM dependent, the resulting indices could have a wider spread when computed from downscaled data as compared to those directly computed from GCM output. In the latter case, it is not the downscaling procedure that makes future projection more uncertain; rather, it is indicative of higher variability associated with finer spatial scale. Individual model datasets and all related derived products are subject to the terms of use (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/TermsOfUse/TermsOfUse6-1.html) of the source organization.