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The impact of climatic variability on the environment is of great importance to the agricultural sector in Canada. Monitoring the impacts on water supplies, soil degradation and agricultural production is essential to the preparedness of the region in dealing with possible drought and other agroclimate risks. Derived normal climate data represent 30-year averages (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020) of climate conditions observed at a particular location. The derived normal climate data represents 30-year averages or “normals” for precipitation, temperature, growing degree days, crop heat units, frost, and dry spells. These normal trends are key to understanding agroclimate risks in Canada. These normal can be used as a baseline to compare against current conditions, and are particularly useful for monitoring drought risk.

Precipitation Percentiles represents the accumulated precipitation (mm) for the time period compared to historical information for the same time period. This comparison ranks the current precipitation amount and assigns it a percentile value based on a historic record. Products are produced for the following timeframes: Agricultural Year, Growing Season and Winter Season as well as rolling products for 30, 60, 90 and 180 days

Multi-model ensembles of snow depth based on projections from twenty-eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of snow depth (m) are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at deterministic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 48 hours into the future. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage of the system is most of Canada. Data is available over specific areas in the MSC Datamart and the whole coverage is available in the MSC GeoMet web services. Data is available at a horizontal resolution of about 2.5 km up to 31 vertical levels. Predictions are performed up to four times a day.

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been recognized as the most accessible index for quantifying and reporting meteorological drought. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir storage. The model uses observed historical precipitation amounts to compute probability distributions which are then normalized using an incomplete gamma function over a range of timescales. The values can be interpreted as the number of standard deviations by which the observed anomaly deviates from the long-term mean. where positive values (greater than zero) result from above average conditions.

This map shows the projected average change in mean temperature (°C) for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP8.5. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

The probability of effective growing season degree days above 100 for cool season crops. This condition must be maintained for at least 5 consecutive days in order for EGDD to be accumulated (egdd_cool_100prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cumulative heat-energy satisfies the essential requirement of field crop growth and development towards a high yield and good quality of agricultural crop products. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

The probability of effective growing season degree days above 175 for warm season crops. This condition must be maintained for at least 5 consecutive days in order for EGDD to be accumulated (egdd_warm_175prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cumulative heat-energy satisfies the essential requirement of field crop growth and development towards a high yield and good quality of agricultural crop products. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Monthly 30-year Average Minimum Temperature represents the average monthly minimum temperature calculated at a given location averaged across a 30 year period (1961-1991, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020). These values are calculated across Canada in 10x10 km cells.