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The greatest 10-day precipitation total expected over the next 2 weeks (p10d). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from September 1 to August 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from September 1 to August 31. Units: cm/10 days Precipitation (moisture availability) establishes the economic yield potential and product quality of field crops. Both dry and wet precipitation extremes have the ability to inhibit proper crop growth. The greatest daily precipitation index covers the risk of excessive precipitation in the short term, while the other indices pertain to longer term moisture availability. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Drought is a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, resulting in a water shortage that has adverse impacts on vegetation, animals and/or people. The Climate Moisture Index (CMI) was calculated as the difference between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) – the potential loss of water vapour from a landscape covered by vegetation. Positive CMI values indicate wet or moist conditions and show that precipitation is sufficient to sustain a closed-canopy forest. Negative CMI values indicate dry conditions that, at best, can support discontinuous parkland-type forests. The CMI is well suited to evaluating moisture conditions in dry regions such as the Prairie Provinces and has been used for other ecological studies. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated for 30-year periods using the modified Penman-Monteith formulation of Hogg (1997), based on monthly 10-km gridded temperature data. Data shown on maps are 30-year averages. Historical values of CMI (1981-2010) were created by averaging annual CMI calculated from interpolated monthly temperature and precipitation data produced from climate station records. Future values of CMI were projected from downscaled monthly values of temperature and precipitation simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected mean annual Climate Moisture Index across Canada for the long-term (2071-2100) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Reference: Hogg, E.H. 1997. Temporal scaling of moisture and the forest-grassland boundary in western Canada. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 84,115–122.

This map shows the projected change in mean precipitation for 2016-2035, with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for RCP4.5, expressed as a percentage (%) of mean precipitation in the reference period. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is shown. For more maps on projected change, please visit the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) site: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=download-cmip5.

Daily climate observations are derived from two sources of data. The first are Daily Climate Stations producing one or two observations per day of temperature, precipitation. The second are hourly stations that typically produce more weather elements e.g. wind or snow on ground. Only a subset of the total stations is shown due to size limitations. The criteria for station selection are listed as below. The priorities for inclusion are as follows: (1) Station is currently operational, (2) Stations with long periods of record, (3) Stations that are co-located with the categories above and supplement the period of record.

The Probability (likelihood) of cool wave days for cool season/overwintering crops occurring Cool Wave Days are the number of days in the forecast period with a minimum temperature below the cardinal minimum temperature, the lowest temperature at which crop growth will begin (dcw_cool_prob). This temperature is 5°C for cool season crops. Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cool season crops require a relatively low temperature condition. Typical examples include wheat, barley, canola, oat, rye, pea, and potato. They normally grow in late spring and summer, and mature between the end of summer and early fall in the southern agricultural areas of Canada. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Heat Wave Days are the number of days in the forecast period with a maximum temperature above the cardinal maximum temperature, the temperature at which crop growth ceases (dhw_cool). This temperature is 30°C for cool season crops. Week 1 and week 2 forecasted index is available daily from April 1 to October 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted index is available weekly (Thursday) from April 1 to October 31. Cool season crops require a relatively low temperature condition. Typical examples include wheat, barley, canola, oat, rye, pea, and potato. They normally grow in late spring and summer, and mature between the end of summer and early fall in the southern agricultural areas of Canada. The optimum temperature for such crops is 25°C. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

Cumulative heat-energy satisfies the essential requirement of field crop growth and development towards a high yield and good quality of agricultural crop products. Agriculture is an important primary production sector in Canada. Agricultural production, profitability, sustainability and food security depend on many agrometeorological factors. Extreme weather events in Canada, such as drought, floods, heat waves, frosts and high intensity storms, have the ability to significantly impact field crop production. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily basis.

Probability of total precipitation above 50mm over the forecast period (pweek50_prob). Week 1 and week 2 forecasted probability is available daily from September 1 to August 31. Week 3 and week 4 forecasted probability is available weekly (Thursday) from September 1 to August 31. Precipitation (moisture availability) establishes the economic yield potential and product quality of field crops. Both dry and wet precipitation extremes have the ability to inhibit proper crop growth. The greatest daily precipitation index covers the risk of excessive precipitation in the short term, while the other indices pertain to longer term moisture availability. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have together developed a suite of extreme agrometeorological indices based on four main categories of weather factors: temperature, precipitation, heat, and wind. The extreme weather indices are intended as short-term prediction tools and generated using ECCC’s medium range forecasts to create a weekly index product on a daily and weekly basis.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem. Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications. Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the medium-term (2041-2070) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.